Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4301
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4301 · VPS → MIA
departs 6:00 AM CT · arrives 8:46 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Fri 10/2 13%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave VPS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.7 in of rain forecast at VPS that day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
VPS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
VPS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.94 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.