Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 9873 LANDED 4:27 PM ET, ON TIME · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

MQ 9873 · BOS → DCA

took off 3:15 PM ET · landed 4:27 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 9873 · BOS → DCA

Odds over time