Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5016 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

OH 5016 · CLT → HPN

departs 5:57 PM ET · arrives 8:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HPN?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 5pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HPN

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.51 in

HPN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling10,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5016 · CLT → HPN

Odds over time

How late will it get to HPN?