OH 5027 · DCA → ROC

departs 9:50 AM ET · arrives 11:24 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ 9am departures from DCA are often late

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.43 in

ROC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5027 · DCA → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?