Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5043 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

OH 5043 · PHL → BTV

departs 9:59 PM ET · arrives 11:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BTV?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ 9pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

BTV (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5043 · PHL → BTV

Odds over time

How late will it get to BTV?