Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5043 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

OH 5043 · PHL → BTV

departs 9:59 PM ET · arrives 11:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BTV?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ 9pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ BTV usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.39 in

BTV (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5043 · PHL → BTV

Odds over time

How late will it get to BTV?