OH 5109 · DCA → TYS

took off 9:46 AM ET · expected to land 10:59 AM ET (scheduled 9:46 AM ET → 11:34 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TYS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at TYS that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into TYS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.43 in

TYS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip2.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5109 · DCA → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?