Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5238 LANDED 10:02 AM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

OH 5238 · DSM → DCA

took off 7:11 AM CT · landed 10:02 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ DSM is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5238 · DSM → DCA

Odds over time