Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5268 LANDED 2:13 AM ET, ~15 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

OH 5268 · DCA → BUF

took off 1:14 AM ET · landed 2:13 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±1 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.43 in

BUF (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5268 · DCA → BUF

Odds over time