Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5374 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

OH 5374 · ROC → DCA

departs 11:50 AM ET · arrives 1:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5374 · ROC → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?