Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5389 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

OH 5389 · CLT → SBN

departs 4:47 PM ET · arrives 6:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBN?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.79 in

SBN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5389 · CLT → SBN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBN?