OH 5409 · MEM → PHL

took off 6:34 AM CT · landed 9:19 AM ET (scheduled 6:16 AM CT → 9:55 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at MEM that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from MEM are usually not late

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.01 in

PHL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5409 · MEM → PHL

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHL?