OH 5432 · DCA → DSM

departs 2:04 PM ET · arrives 3:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.46 in

DSM (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5432 · DCA → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?