Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5440 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

OH 5440 · BNA → DCA

departs 6:21 AM CT · arrives 9:25 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↑ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from BNA are usually not late

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.18 in

DCA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5440 · BNA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?