Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5454 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

OH 5454 · PHL → MSY

departs 7:44 PM ET · arrives 10:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 733 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 2.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MSY that day

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

MSY (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.90 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5454 · PHL → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?