OH 5457 · DCA → ROC

took off 3:46 PM ET · landed 4:37 PM ET (scheduled 2:58 PM ET → 4:32 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ROC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.37 in

ROC (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5457 · DCA → ROC

Odds over time

How late did it get to ROC?