Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5464 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

OH 5464 · CLT → AVP

departs 10:35 PM ET · arrives 12:25 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at AVP more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AVP?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 10pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Arrivals into AVP at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AVP

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.79 in

AVP (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5464 · CLT → AVP

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVP?