Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5516 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

OH 5516 · DTW → DCA

departs 10:41 AM ET · arrives 12:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5516 · DTW → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?