Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5647 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

OH 5647 · TYS → DCA

departs 11:16 AM ET · arrives 1:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DCA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

TYS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.22 in

DCA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,233 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5647 · TYS → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?