OH 5662 · DCA → ORF

departs 8:15 PM ET · arrives 9:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ORF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.09 in

ORF (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5662 · DCA → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?