Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3225
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
OO 3225 · SEA → TUS
departs 5:45 PM PT · arrives 9:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 31%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SEA that day
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.