Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
OO 3854 · MSP → MSN
departs 4:00 PM CT · arrives 5:08 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at MSP that day
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from MSP are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSN
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
MSN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.