Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3996
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
OO 3996 · IAD → MSP
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:53 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 7%
Thu 10/8 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.3d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.03 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.