Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4046
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
OO 4046 · MSP → MKE
departs 2:07 PM CT · arrives 3:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at MSP that day
↑
2pm departures from MSP are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
MKE (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 10,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.