Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4086
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
OO 4086 · MSP → JAC
departs 6:50 PM CT · arrives 8:29 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at JAC more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at JAC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAC?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAC
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
JAC (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.