Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4109
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 4109 · ATL → SBN
departs 7:42 PM ET · arrives 9:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
7pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.16 in
SBN (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.