Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4109
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
OO 4109 · ATL → SBN
departs 7:42 PM ET · arrives 9:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3 28%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
7pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.35 in
SBN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.