Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4238
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
OO 4238 · ABR → MSP
departs 6:34 AM CT · arrives 7:44 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 8%
Mon 10/5 7%
Fri 10/9 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ABR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at MSP that day
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ABR
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ABR (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.09 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.