Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4458
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
OO 4458 · MKE → MSP
departs 8:00 AM CT · arrives 9:26 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 11%
Mon 10/5 7%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at MSP that day
↑
8am departures from MKE are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 10,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.