Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4951
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 4951 · SAT → LAX
departs 7:00 AM CT · arrives 8:20 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Fri 10/2 14%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.25 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.