Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4990
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
OO 4990 · FSD → ORD
departs 4:43 PM CT · arrives 6:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 30%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at FSD that day
Weather at each end
FSD (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.