OO 5038 · IAD → LYH

departs 8:15 AM ET · arrives 9:20 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at LYH more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LYH?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at LYH that day

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ LYH usually runs smoothly

↓ 8am departures from IAD are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

LYH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.45 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5038 · IAD → LYH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LYH?