Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5044
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
OO 5044 · AEX → IAH
departs 4:00 PM CT · arrives 5:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±4 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave AEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 667 ft, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AEX that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AEX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 733 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.32 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.