Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5434
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 5434 · JAX → ORD
departs 11:33 AM ET · arrives 1:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.68 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.