Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
OO 5862 · SFO → SBA
departs 4:10 PM PT · arrives 5:37 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
SFO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.