Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
OO 5862 · SFO → SBA
departs 4:10 PM PT · arrives 5:37 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SBA that day
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SBA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.