Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
OO 5862 · SFO → SBA
departs 4:10 PM PT · arrives 5:37 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SBA that day
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
SBA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.