Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 6419 · DFW → ASE
departs 6:52 PM CT · arrives 8:17 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 72%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ASE more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ASE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at ASE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ASE?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ASE
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
ASE (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.