Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1458 IN THE AIR (OFF 12:25 PM PT, ETA 8:24 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

UA 1458 · SFO → MIA

took off 12:25 PM PT · expected to land 8:24 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1458 · SFO → MIA

Odds over time