Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1534 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Today

UA 1534 · DEN → RIC

departs 5:50 PM MT · arrives 11:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±6 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at RIC that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.50 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1534 · DEN → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?