Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1534 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 1534 · DEN → RIC

departs 5:50 PM MT · arrives 11:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at RIC that day

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DEN that day

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.94 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1534 · DEN → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?