UA 1761 · ORD → MSY

departs 8:11 PM CT · arrives 10:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MSY that day

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ MSY usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1761 · ORD → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?