Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1761 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

UA 1761 · ORD → MSY

departs 8:11 PM CT · arrives 10:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at MSY that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1761 · ORD → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?