UA 1829 · IAH → MIA

departs 7:01 PM CT · arrives 10:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at IAH that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,267 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.29 in

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1829 · IAH → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?