UA 2106 · MIA → ORD

departs 4:10 PM ET · arrives 6:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2106 · MIA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?