Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2116 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 2116 · IAD → DFW

departs 6:00 PM ET · arrives 8:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.04 in

DFW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2116 · IAD → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?