UA 21 · AMS → IAH

took off 11:08 AM CEST · landed 2:43 PM CT (scheduled 11:01 AM CEST → 2:49 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 17h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to IAH?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMS

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

AMS (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAH (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 21 · AMS → IAH

Odds over time

How late did it get to IAH?