Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2473 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 2473 · DEN → TYS

departs 5:25 PM MT · arrives 10:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at TYS that day

↓ TYS usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TYS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2473 · DEN → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?