Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2473 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 2473 · DEN → TYS

departs 5:25 PM MT · arrives 10:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at TYS that day

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ TYS usually runs smoothly

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TYS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precip1.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2473 · DEN → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?