Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2616 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 2616 · ORD → RDU

departs 10:48 AM CT · arrives 2:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RDU that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ RDU usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2616 · ORD → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?